Nationwide Subjective and Objective Assessments of Potential Talent Predictors in Elite Youth Soccer: An Investigation of Prognostic Validity in a Prospective Study

Recent studies have provided empirical evidence on the prognostic relevance of objective performance diagnostics in soccer talent identification and development process. However, little is known about validity coaches' subjective evaluations performance. This study evaluated assessments within a nationwide program addressed motor, perceptual skill, personality-related factors. Male players ( N = 13,869; M age 12.59 ± 1.07 years) from groups U12 to U15 German participated this study. Participants completed an motor diagnostic (sprint, agility, dribbling, ball control, juggling) were subjectively rated by their coaches (kicking skills, endurance, individual tactical psychosocial skills). All nine predictors assessed with sufficient psychometric properties (? ? 0.72; except dribbling control: ? 0.53). Players' success three seasons later was operationalized achieving professional youth academy level or not (success rate, 9%). Independent-samples t -tests analyzed univariate mean group comparisons between future selected non-selected players. Logistic regression models examined multivariate all predicting (model 1), 2), both 3). Confirming validity, outperformed regarding (each p < 0.001, for agility U15: 0.01). Tactical kicking sprint highest predictive value d 0.61 each group). Multivariate results (7% ? Nagelkerke's R 2 11%; 0.001) (8% 13%; assessments' validity. model 3 revealed best statistical explanatory power (0.15 0.20; 0.001). In combined assessment model, sprint, found be most variables. conclusion, reinforces call multidimensional integrating assessments. Future research needed address demands longitudinal analyses ratings, integration biological maturation, female soccer.